|This paper was published in the Canadian Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 23, 2-3 (1991), pp.37-48.|
|1.||Victimological principles and typology|
|2.||VP-characteristics at (inter)national level|
|3.||The most frequent subforms of D- and U-state|
|4.||VP-state as a war precursor|
|5.||Interpretation of results|
|6.||Relevant peace issues under the victimological aspect -- example Europe|
Victimological research has found aggression to be "attracted" and escalated by forms of inferior traits, behaviour and status.
At the level of nations, we found their pendants to be long-term external unsuccessfulness (U-state) and long-term internal discord
(D-state); these strongly interrelate and add up to the state of victimological predisposition (VP-state). This suggests to employ the latter as an indicator in a heuristic approach to causes of war.
An analysis of the few decades respectively preceding 17 major wars shows that each
of the wars followed a distinct VP-state of the final loser. Generally interpreted,
the latter prepares the soil for either of the main forms of fatal collective victimization : Those by war and/or by famine. Both mainly affect the respective lower social strata.
Like any approach mainly based on empirical case studies in history, this investigation
cannot predict the degree of deterrence or "braking" -- versus a major war -- by ABC
arms. Owing to the high threshold, latent crises in the recent decades didn't escalate beyond conventional wars in "third-world" countries.
Some explanatory details and arguments were omitted in this description. (A more comprehensive version of the text and of empirical confirmation by Table 3 can be obtained from the first author.)
A summary of these should be stated proceeding from results proven in interpersonal victimology. In order to cover both sides of the social spectrum, we introduce two categories: The victimologically predisposed, named VP; and the victimologically "immune", named VI (cf. Table 1).
|VP||victimologically predisposed category ("attracting" aggression)|
|VI||victimologically "immune" category|
|D||case of internal discord at (intra)national level|
|U||event of external unsuccessfulness at (inter)national level|
|D-state||state of long-term internal discord at (intra)national level|
|U-state||state of long-term external unsuccessfulness at (inter)national level|
|VP-state||D-state and U-state mutually interrelated and superimposed|
The VP category
bears traits which are forms of poor frustration tolerance/low stress resistance,
which again result in long-term unsuccessfulness.
According to Schuh , the typical victim even bears criminogenic inclinations.
The VI category possesses great frustration tolerance and stress resistance, proven e.g. by forms like high self-control, patience and/or "disarming" charme whenever adequate, which result in long-term success.
The VP traits described above engender antipathy and make victimization latent; the nature of this predisposition can be summarized thus:
At the national level, the efficacy of victimological principles is expanded and modified by the following details:
Yet these peculiarities rather amplify the efficacy of victimological principles at (inter)national level:
These principles can be summarized in a modified analogy with 1., 2., and 3. above:
from ... till:
|Series of armed conflicts of ancient Mediterranian nations ( "E"=Egypt ) :|
|3||campaigns of E vs. Nile Delta||-2885 ... -2863||Nile Delta|
|6||campaigns of E vs. Nubia||-2663 ... -2273||Nubia|
|3||campaigns of Theben vs. central E||-2112 ... -2061||central E|
|3||Hyksos' Wars vs. E||-1709 ... -1659||E|
|3||campaigns/wars of E vs. Hyksos||-1580 ... -1558||Hyksos|
|4||campaigns of E vs. Nubia||-1638 ... -1522||Nubia|
|3||wars of E vs. Syria & Mesopotamia||-1539 ... -1460||Syria|
|3||Persian Wars||-490 ... -449||Persia|
|3||Punic Wars||-264 ... -146||Carthage|
|3||Macedonian Wars||-215 ... -116||Macedonia|
|Series of armed conflicts within and near Europe :|
|6||Swiss Independence battles/wars||1315 ... 1499||Habsburg|
|5||wars of Turkey vs. Venetia||1423 ... 1573||Venetia|
|4||Lithuanian defense wars vs. Moscow||1488 ... 1522||Lithuania|
|4||wars of France vs. Reich in Italy||1521 ... 1544||France|
|3||Silesian Wars||1740 ... 1763||Austria|
|2||World Wars||1914 ... 1945||Germany|
|4||Israel-Arab wars||1948 ... 1973||Arabs|
For a formal proof of the connection, we estimated the data of the variable s1 (external success) and s2 (internal solidarity) on an arbitrary scale 0...6 each, by a uniform score of criteria. With n = 30 and r = .72, the correlation is very highly significant. The VI-state prevails at upper right; a relative VP-state at lower left.
A simplified abstract of the recent decade under this aspect shows this:
In western Europe, economic and political success interrelates with increased liberality
and solidarity up to the trend for unification (EC, Germany) -- according to the interrelation
s1<-->s2 as a pendant to Figure 1a.
In eastern Europe, dictatorship -- now partly substituted by riots, secessions (USSR, Yugoslavia, Romania) and dissolution of pact system -- interrelates with (economic/political) unsuccessfulness. These D-/U-states are not yet very distinct as compared to those in some "third-world" countries.
Any group or political party can terminate its eventual VP-state by winding-up; a nation cannot -- due to its more stable "boundary conditions".
Recorded history (especially of antiquity) can be an incomplete mosaic of the continuum of events; and only in rare phases it would explicitely reveal D or U cases. Some of the important D and U cases (in Table 3) were accordingly derived indirectly.
Strongly different degrees of victimization obviously account for correspondingly different degrees of the preceding VP state: For instance, losing war was much less tragical to Persia in the Persian Wars than it was for Carthage in the Punic Wars.
"Tensions" or acute international crises were neglected in this study since they can release war only after a VP-state. Moreover, their data don't relate to the outcome of a war.
|Denotation of war:||from ... till:||loser(s):||VP-state of loser(s):
|from ... till:||D||U|
|7 major ancient wars:|
|1st Minor Asian War||-1521 ... -1513||Minor Asia Alliance||-1539 ... -1521||4|
|2nd Minor Asian War||-1481 ... -1460||Minor Asia Alliance||-1513 ... -1490||1||1|
|Great Mesopotamian War||-1111 ... -1090||Mesopot. Alliance||-1121 ... -1111||3|
|Persian Wars||-490 ... -448||Persia||-500 ... -492||1||2|
|1st Punic War||-264 ... -241||Carthage||-308 ... -264||2||3|
|2nd Punic War||-218 ... -201||Carthage||-241 ... -218||2||3|
|3rd Punic War||-149 ... -146||Carthage||-201 ... -149||3|
|10 major wars in Europe / Minor Asia since 1300:|
|Hundred Years' War||1337 ... 1453||England||1314 ... 1337||5|
|Thirty Years' War||1618 ... 1648||Reich||1596 ... 1618||7||3|
|Great Nordic War||1700 ... 1718||Sweden||1660 ... 1700||1||7|
|Spanish Succession War||1701 ... 1714||France||1685 ... 1701||2||3|
|Silesian Wars||1740 ... 1763||Austria||1713 ... 1740||5|
|Revolution. & Napol. Wars||1792 ... 1815||France||1759 ... 1792||1||5|
|German-French War||1870 ... 1871||France||1860 ... 1870||4|
|Russian-Japanese War||1904 ... 1905||Russia||1878 ... 1904||1||3|
|World War I||1914 ... 1918||Reich||1903 ... 1914||2||7|
|World War II||1939 ... 1945||Reich||1919 ... 1939||5||1|
The causal connection of the VP-state to war proves highly significant in Table 3;
it can be summarized and interpreted in detail as follows:
In contrast to the situation preceding World War II, the present peace era in western Europe bases on
Continuation of peace in Europe will depend on its continued success and internal solidarity -- including e.g. a reduction of the jobless rate and of environmental pollution.
Analysed under the victimological aspect, still "latent" defence issues have to be
A nuclear war would refute victimological principles as it would also harm the potential victor, neutral nations and all of their social strata. This logic hence "forbids" an occurrence of that kind of a total war (and would be adopted by motivation due to the victimological principle which works in interpersonal and in intergroup relations).
However, this logic doesn't exclude the application of the "smaller" thermonuclear
shells, knapsack mines or neutron bombs which facilitate "aimed" extermination of
combattants and neighboured civilian population. Since these bombs trigger relatively
small shock-waves, the local VI strata would be capable to protect against exposition (by
safe private shelters, or by emigration to presumably safe areas/countries).
This virtual connection has to be kept in mind to see that future disarmament negotiations
abolish this sort of arms.
Another dead-end layout for security is the "pure" defence doctrine (culminating
in the SDI concept). Like unsuccessful defence devices before -- Chinese Wall, Roman Limes,
French Maginot Line etc., -- it can only simulate a long-term security to the domestic population, while it stimulates the enemies' inventive phantasy to outmanoeuvre the presumed
patent solution by some modern version of the "Trojan Horse".
The victimological approach can lastingly contribute to war prevention only with a
concept not limited to temporal, geographical or arms categories. This concept bases
on a thorough rethinking, based on a general knowledge and consciousness
and conviction of the causal nexi.
Recommendations how to prevent becoming a victim, as found in literature on interpersonal victimology, would hardly suffice in case of emergency. It is advised -- generalized and by examples -- to avoid victimogenic behaviour and situations.[1,3] Like any behavioural patent solution offered, this concept can improve the awareness of the issue; beyond that it only shifts the problem from learning and resolving (to behave along the right principles), to their successful application. If e.g. courage could be practised along the guidance of a recipe guaranteeing success, it would cease to imply risks; and thereby cease to be courage.
Wherever started, the process of learning, awareness and due behaviour takes much longer at the level of nations than at (inter)personal level, but is finally successful. The history of recent centuries holds examples of final success of rethinking:
Results of this research should be brought to general awareness; an "immunizing" effect can also be achieved by going on to documentate past wars on TV. This may prepare
the soil for a decisive step towards the abolition of the plaque of wars -- the abolition of all of the military, which now, very slowly though, enters the scope of the
|||Jörg Schuh, "Viktimologie -- der fatale Zusammenhang zwischen Widerstand und Anpassung", in Walter Häsler, Viktimologie (Grüsch, Switzerland: Rüegger, 1986).
Back to the text reference
|||Hans-Joachim Schneider, Das Verbrechensopfer in der Strafrechtspflege, omnibus volume, 3rd Internat. Sympos. on Victimology in Münster, Germany, 447 pp. (Berlin, New York: de Gruyter, 1982).
Back to the text reference
|||Terence P. Thornberry, Simon I. Singer, "Opfer und Täter: Zur Übereinstimmung zweier Populationen", in Gerd F. Kirchhoff, Klaus Sessar, Das Verbrechensopfer (Bochum: N. Brockmeyer, 1979).
Back to the text reference
|||Walter Kiefl, Sigfried Lamneck, Soziologie des Opfers (Munich: W. Fink, 1986).
Back to the text reference
|||P. H. Johnson et al., The recidivist victim (Huntsville, Texas, 1973; cited in: Gerd F. Kirchhoff, Klaus Sessar, Das Verbrechensopfer, Bochum: N. Brockmeyer, 1979).
Back to the text reference
|||Dominik Prodöhl, Joachim Reuss, "Zur Psychologie interpersonaler und internationaler Konflikte", Gestalt Theory (Vol. 4, No. 1/2, 1982, 72-78).